+1.5 °C by the end of the century?
The latest IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report highlighted the overall inadequacy of the commitments in the Paris Agreement to limit the risks associated with the consequences of climate change. According to scientists, a world at +2 °C would be much more dangerous than had previously been anticipated; the report now recommends reducing our emissions by 45% by 2030 compared with 2010 to establish a trajectory towards carbon neutrality by 2050 and limit the temperature rise to +1.5 °C by the end of the century.
Faced with difficulties at state level, the mobilisation of non-state actors is continuing. The United Nations NAZCA platform listed over 12,000 stakeholders involved in 2018 (cities, regions, NGOs, investors and businesses), twice as many as in 2016, while the Science Based Targets initiative counted 536 major global corporations committed to reducing their greenhouse gas emissions in line with the
requirements of the Paris Agreement. These commitments illustrate these actors growing awareness of the risks and economic opportunities associated with the climate transition. But it is the financial sphere that now appears to be truly realising the scale of the new global climate situation, multiplying initiatives such as climate indices and specific funding tools. At the same time, the price of a carbon allowance on the European market (EU-ETS) rose to 24 per tonne at the end of 2018 compared with barely 5 a year before, driven by the European reform adopted last March.
The establishment of a climate economy
At this rate, the carbon allowance price could reach 40 by 2023 and 55 by 2030 according to the Carbon Tracker thinktank. However, although the amounts invested in fighting climate change are rising, they still remain too low. In France, for example, climate investment exceeded 40 billion in 2018 and has grown by 17% over the last three years (source: I4CE), whereas the sums needed are estimated at 50 to 70 billion per year.
Limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.5 °C by the end of the century: a necessity now clearly proven to avoid an overheated world.
Y TRENDS CLIMATE EMERGENCY DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE DIGITAL REVOLUTION PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES9